Uncle Rico’s Rather Dire View of the World in 2040.

Saving Ninja is at it again with another episode of ‘Thought Experiments‘. This time it is about the future economy. The link is HERE.

The question posed is thus;

I recently read a statistic that 85% of the jobs there will be in 2030 have not yet been created. What do you think these jobs are, and which ones will no longer exist? What does this mean for education? Also, what will offices look like in 11 years? Will people continue to commute to a physical office or will remote work and digital nomadism take over? Finally, how do you think this will affect the overall global economic balance?

I feel that to be realistic I need to bump the timetable out another 10 years, but here is my answer for the future economy of the year 2040. Prepare thy Virgin ears, for my answer is bleak.

Gone from the future economy will be manufacturing. Service jobs will be the majority of positions. The government payrolls will swell with the otherwise unemployable. Farming will only mean massive farms and home gardens, all small/mid level farming will go bust or be assimilated.

I am not even sure about tech jobs. What about when the computer can write its own algorithm?

Jobs that require a flair of humanity will still exist. Like mine, lawyering, requires telling a story to someone’s face in order to persuade them. Although I have always thought I would be at home in front of a camera in a suit and tie only from the waist up 馃檪

Climate change will have effected the world in ways I am not sure we can predict but here are some basics I am comfortable predicting;

 Resource problems create jobs! I think another new job will be ‘Water Reclamation Specialist‘ a fancy word for water police. Enforcing codes against waste, enforcing court ordered residential and commercial shut-offs. Chasing after ‘water rustlers’ and breaking up water based black markets.

Border security will be a boon. So will people to process the claims of climate refugees.

 I feel like our military will be comprised largely of non citizens who under the guise of some聽 Star Ship Troopers ‘Citizenship through Service‘ program will hope to get their families into the U.S.

We will have ongoing conflicts all over the globe as countries compete for dwindling resources. Constant warfare is a terrifying, yet effective, way to keep an economy chugging along.

The Gig Economy will only get bigger.

There will be a cute name for all of the people who get by exclusively on side gigs and the hustle economy.

 Specifically I think the the Gig economy will come to include Wombs. Children that are 100% the genetic product of their parents but without all of the body ruining quagmire of an actual pregnancy. Physicals traits will be ordered A’la Carte. Surrogates will of course be monitored with all kinds of technology to ensure they are not abusing their bodies with any unsavory business. By now prostitution will be on the legal up and up so you can rent out another persons genitalia as well. I am sure we will also find a way to rent out a person’s brain, but I am not creative enough to see how this will work.

 During Colonial England/India, it was considered the duty of a privileged class to employ the less fortunate as part of their obligation to the community. I think this will come back in a big way. Even the middle classes will be expected to hire ‘Help’ to keep house and tend to the comings and goings of a modern life.

We will have a better name than servant, but servants they shall be.

What are your thoughts on our future Economy? Here are some other theories;

{ in deed a bly }

Ms ZiYou

MoneyForTheModernGirl

[HALT CATCH FIRE]

more coming as they link to mine 馃檪

P.S. This may come off as a cop-out, but I ignored the part about ‘What does this mean for education?’ because it seems too hard to answer. I think a lot more vocational education. Inside the classroom seems like it would be way more universal with loads of standardized interactive VR lessons. A true guess.

 

6 thoughts on “Uncle Rico’s Rather Dire View of the World in 2040.

  1. You did not disappoint me with drawing the darker side of the future. I cannot really argue with any of your points. However, while water seems like a critical scarce resource currently I think that in the not too far future our scientists will develop a way to solve this issue and fix the shortage along with waste and recycling. The only question is how much damage will be made on the path.

    I also guess that even if computers will be able to code themselves someone will need to tell them how to code themselves at the first place so maybe not all of the programmers are doomed. At least I hope so.

    Interesting point on the slavery part. I would be curious about the future proportions of the folks who will need a “slave job” to the ones who must become the “masters”.

    • Desalination is an obvious solution to the water crisis, but for now it takes to much energy. We would have to produce cheaper energy to make large scale desalination a realistic prospect.

  2. You painted a funny image in my head of a holographic lawyer walking around in a virtual court seemingly wearing a full suit, but he’s not wearing any paints, ha!

    Bleak depiction indeed but not far from the truth I’d guess. Interesting insight about people having to hire more work to keep the economy going.

  3. I’m not so sure about the sustainability of lawyering.

    At its heart, success depends upon creative interpretations and loopholes, yet efficiency lies in standardisation and conformance. However for every pantless courtroom performer, there are a thousand paper shufflers mindlessly following repeatable decision making frameworks that could readily be automated.

    In the software world, the move towards the cloud and Software-as-a-Service has meant that divergence from the defaults become prohibitively expensive. If such a model were ever applied to the law, filing suit would become punitively expensive and only the virtual certainties would ever go to trial.

    That won’t be an organic change from within (the legal system in the United States has been captured), but I suspect would be driven from outside via the need to compete against peers who do not face the same compliance, liability, and litigation burdens.

    Your water wars observation is ripped from the headlines, is the economic driver behind the recent escalations in Kashmir.

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